FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Technology Division

Qualification · Qualification 27

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

243.65 – 386.43

14%86%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

115 – 355

Prediction correct · off by 80 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 341.1 ±10.4

4152Hoya Robotics

Season APEX 152.3Event APEX 144.19Rank 13Record 8-3-1Status establishedConfidence 100

5408Kennedy Kinetics

Season APEX 89.2Event APEX 9.91Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2609Beaverworx

Season APEX 99.6Event APEX 89.55Rank 38Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 646.6 ±9.8

2935NACI Robotics

Season APEX 196.2Event APEX 98.16Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4917Sir Lancerbot

Season APEX 120Event APEX 110.72Rank 32Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9785Alectrona

A+

Season APEX 330.4Event APEX 177.55Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4152, 5408, 2609

/ 100 compat

Projected

243.7 pts

~0.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4152, 5408, 2609

Auto

31.2 13%

Teleop

132.2 56%

Endgame

71.5 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 2935, 4917, 9785

/ 100 compat

Projected

386.4 pts

~2.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2935, 4917, 9785

Auto

65.4 17%

Teleop

203.5 54%

Endgame

107.2 29%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.88 · Blue 2.45

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score243.7pts

Blue projected score386.4pts

Red win probability14%

Event bonus sample228alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 15%, blue 22%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -142.8
Score range: 196–434
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 470 vs event baseline 266.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

341.1Season APEX646.6

31.2Auto65.4

132.2Teleop203.5

71.5Endgame107.2

109Consistency73

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	84
teleop	67	237
endgame	32	19
foul	0	15
total	115	355

Result

Final score

115 – 355

Prediction correct · off by 80 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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