FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Technology Division

Qualification · Qualification 26

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

89.39 – 303.79

6%94%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

148 – 299

Prediction correct · off by 31.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 245.3 ±11

2634The Gryphons

Season APEX 81.6Event APEX 6.01Rank 37Record 5-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

9782Wextech Titans

Season APEX 47.8Event APEX 22.71Rank 42Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3739Oakbotics

Season APEX 115.9Event APEX 60.67Rank 36Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 338.2 ±10.4

5885Villanova WiredCats

Season APEX 128.8Event APEX 153.99Rank 14Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

781Kinetic Knights

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 107.52Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5024Raider Robotics

Season APEX 125.5Event APEX 42.28Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2634, 9782, 3739

/ 100 compat

Projected

89.4 pts

~0.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2634, 9782, 3739

Auto

33.1 39%

Teleop

58.4 70%

Endgame

-7.7 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5885, 781, 5024

/ 100 compat

Projected

303.8 pts

~2.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5885, 781, 5024

Auto

89.7 30%

Teleop

159.6 53%

Endgame

50.4 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.63 · Blue 2.54

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score89.4pts

Blue projected score303.8pts

Red win probability6%

Event bonus sample228alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 15%, blue 16%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -214.4
Score range: 41–352
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 447 vs event baseline 267.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

245.3Season APEX338.2

33.1Auto89.7

58.4Teleop159.6

-7.7Endgame50.4

63Consistency101

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	77
teleop	72	154
endgame	55	68
foul	0	0
total	148	299

Result

Final score

148 – 299

Prediction correct · off by 31.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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