FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Technology Division

Qualification · Qualification 25

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

269.02 – 75.54

92%8%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

620 – 108

Prediction correct · off by 191.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 587.7 ±9.8

10554Team VIPER

Season APEX 138.6Event APEX 133.59Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1310Runnymede Robotics

Season APEX 111.8Event APEX 51.22Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7558ALT-F4

Season APEX 337.3Event APEX 84.21Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 276.7 ±11.7

854Iron Bears

Season APEX 59.5Event APEX 24.95Rank 40Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8789The Lost 10mm Sockets

Season APEX 99.3Event APEX -1.78Rank 39Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4688Saints Bot

Season APEX 117.9Event APEX 52.37Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10554, 1310, 7558

/ 100 compat

Projected

269 pts

~2.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10554, 1310, 7558

Auto

12.6 5%

Teleop

166.9 64%

Endgame

80.1 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 854, 8789, 4688

/ 100 compat

Projected

75.5 pts

~0.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 854, 8789, 4688

Auto

-0.2 0%

Teleop

56.3 73%

Endgame

21.1 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.62 · Blue 0.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score269pts

Blue projected score75.5pts

Red win probability92%

Event bonus sample228alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 28%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 193.5
Score range: 29–316
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 728 vs event baseline 263.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

587.7Season APEX276.7

12.6Auto-0.2

166.9Teleop56.3

80.1Endgame21.1

69Consistency63

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	63	13
teleop	387	56
endgame	170	39
foul	0	0
total	620	108

Result

Final score

620 – 108

Prediction correct · off by 191.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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