Qualification · Qualification 24
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
177.47 – 166.84
53%47%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
138 – 255
Prediction missed · off by 63.8 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 294.8 ±9.8
Season APEX 116.1Event APEX 106.38Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 65.1Event APEX -0.69Rank 43Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 113.6Event APEX 71.78Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 343.1 ±9.8
Season APEX 72.9Event APEX 37.65Rank 33Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 197.1Event APEX 98.46Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 73.1Event APEX 30.73Rank 45Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 5031, 5719, 2013
46
/ 100 compatProjected
177.5 pts
~1.6 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 5031, 5719, 2013
Auto
19.6 11%
Teleop
134.2 76%
Endgame
23.0 13%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Thin endgame coverage
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 36%
Supercharged: 20%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 10611, 3683, 8729
49
/ 100 compatProjected
166.8 pts
~1.5 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 10611, 3683, 8729
Auto
18.5 12%
Teleop
104.5 67%
Endgame
33.6 21%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 36%
Supercharged: 20%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.64 · Blue 1.54
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score177.5pts
Blue projected score166.8pts
Red win probability53%
Event bonus sample228alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 36%, blue 41%
Supercharged bonusred 20%, blue 18%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 10.6
- Score range
- 119–225
- Upset likelihood
- 47%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
294.8Season APEX343.1
19.6Auto18.5
134.2Teleop104.5
23Endgame33.6
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 22 | 17 |
| teleop | 82 | 151 |
| endgame | 34 | 87 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 138 | 255 |
Result
Final score
138 – 255
Prediction missed · off by 63.8 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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