FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Technology Division

Qualification · Qualification 23

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

37.23 – 32.29

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

211 – 125

Prediction correct · off by 133.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 296.4 ±9.8

8349Newbotics

Season APEX 76.4Event APEX 0.09Rank 47Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1229Tidal Shift

Season APEX 100Event APEX 56.06Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6978QuickStrike Niagara

Season APEX 120Event APEX -18.92Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 342.1 ±9.8

6865Manitoulin Metal

Season APEX 37.4Event APEX -30.46Rank 49Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 100

188Blizzard

Season APEX 215.8Event APEX 31.4Rank 35Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4951CDS Cyclones

Season APEX 88.9Event APEX 31.35Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8349, 1229, 6978

/ 100 compat

Projected

37.2 pts

~1.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8349, 1229, 6978

Auto

-6.9 0%

Teleop

30.5 81%

Endgame

14.2 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6865, 188, 4951

/ 100 compat

Projected

32.3 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6865, 188, 4951

Auto

5.8 16%

Teleop

8.8 25%

Endgame

20.7 59%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.48 · Blue 1.44

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score37.2pts

Blue projected score32.3pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample228alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 4.9
Score range: -17–86
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 336 vs event baseline 271.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

296.4Season APEX342.1

-6.9Auto5.8

30.5Teleop8.8

14.2Endgame20.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	37
teleop	127	42
endgame	64	41
foul	5	5
total	211	125

Result

Final score

211 – 125

Prediction correct · off by 133.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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