FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Technology Division

Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

96.83 – 351.46

4%96%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

135 – 361

Prediction correct · off by 23.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 343.9 ±10.4

5408Kennedy Kinetics

Season APEX 89.2Event APEX 13.37Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9062Critical Circuits

Season APEX 134.7Event APEX -13.04Rank 27Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4917Sir Lancerbot

Season APEX 120Event APEX 96.5Rank 32Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 684.2 ±9.8

9785Alectrona

A+

Season APEX 330.4Event APEX 159.63Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2702Rebels

Season APEX 265.1Event APEX 99.84Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6632Northview Robotics

Season APEX 88.7Event APEX 91.99Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5408, 9062, 4917

/ 100 compat

Projected

96.8 pts

~0.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5408, 9062, 4917

Auto

34.5 39%

Teleop

31.9 36%

Endgame

21.4 24%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 9785, 2702, 6632

/ 100 compat

Projected

351.5 pts

~2.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9785, 2702, 6632

Auto

87.6 25%

Teleop

218.5 62%

Endgame

47.9 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.66 · Blue 2.86

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score96.8pts

Blue projected score351.5pts

Red win probability4%

Event bonus sample228alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 15%, blue 34%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -254.6
Score range: 48–400
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 496 vs event baseline 272.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

343.9Season APEX684.2

34.5Auto87.6

31.9Teleop218.5

21.4Endgame47.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	67
teleop	45	218
endgame	64	76
foul	15	0
total	135	361

Result

Final score

135 – 361

Prediction correct · off by 23.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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