FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Technology Division

Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

249.19 – 278.87

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

203 – 402

Prediction correct · off by 84.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 307.1 ±10.4

4152Hoya Robotics

Season APEX 152.3Event APEX 158.46Rank 13Record 8-3-1Status establishedConfidence 100

2852DM Robotics

Season APEX 93.3Event APEX 69.53Rank 41Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9589Arcade Robotics

Season APEX 61.5Event APEX 21.2Rank 46Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 639 ±9.8

4039MakeShift Robotics

Season APEX 199.5Event APEX 86.39Rank 11Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4946The Alpha Dogs

A+

Season APEX 323.6Event APEX 160.18Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3739Oakbotics

Season APEX 115.9Event APEX 32.3Rank 36Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4152, 2852, 9589

/ 100 compat

Projected

249.2 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4152, 2852, 9589

Auto

22.5 9%

Teleop

120.9 49%

Endgame

103.6 42%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4039, 4946, 3739

/ 100 compat

Projected

278.9 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4039, 4946, 3739

Auto

63.4 23%

Teleop

164.4 59%

Endgame

48.7 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.37 · Blue 1.92

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score249.2pts

Blue projected score278.9pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample228alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 16%, blue 24%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -29.7
Score range: 200–328
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 605 vs event baseline 270.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

307.1Season APEX639

22.5Auto63.4

120.9Teleop164.4

103.6Endgame48.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	72
teleop	102	257
endgame	68	73
foul	0	0
total	203	402

Result

Final score

203 – 402

Prediction correct · off by 84.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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