FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Technology Division

Qualification · Qualification 20

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

456.64 – 269.14

91%9%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

560 – 311

Prediction correct · off by 72.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 703.5 ±9.8

9098FireHawks

Season APEX 192.4Event APEX 136.32Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8089Rockway Robotics

Season APEX 141.5Event APEX 110.03Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1241THEORY6

Season APEX 369.6Event APEX 210.29Rank 1Record 11-0-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 329 ±10.4

2609Beaverworx

Season APEX 99.6Event APEX 117.04Rank 38Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5032The Falcons

Season APEX 117.6Event APEX 96.42Rank 19Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

1310Runnymede Robotics

Season APEX 111.8Event APEX 55.68Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9098, 8089, 1241

/ 100 compat

Projected

456.6 pts

~2.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9098, 8089, 1241

Auto

60.2 14%

Teleop

261.0 59%

Endgame

124.7 28%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2609, 5032, 1310

/ 100 compat

Projected

269.1 pts

~0.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2609, 5032, 1310

Auto

46.2 17%

Teleop

144.8 54%

Endgame

79.4 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.59 · Blue 0.73

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score456.6pts

Blue projected score269.1pts

Red win probability91%

Event bonus sample228alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 25%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 187.5
Score range: 222–504
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 871 vs event baseline 262.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

703.5Season APEX329

60.2Auto46.2

261Teleop144.8

124.7Endgame79.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	95	61
teleop	312	168
endgame	153	82
foul	0	0
total	560	311

Result

Final score

560 – 311

Prediction correct · off by 72.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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