FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Technology Division

Qualification · Qualification 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

133.78 – 168.72

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

109 – 272

Prediction correct · off by 64 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 219.4 ±10.4

2852DM Robotics

Season APEX 93.3Event APEX 67.88Rank 41Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6865Manitoulin Metal

Season APEX 37.4Event APEX 16.96Rank 49Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6632Northview Robotics

Season APEX 88.7Event APEX 48.94Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 331.1 ±9.8

2013Cybergnomes

Season APEX 113.6Event APEX 51.51Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4688Saints Bot

Season APEX 117.9Event APEX 76.17Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2609Beaverworx

Season APEX 99.6Event APEX 41.04Rank 38Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2852, 6865, 6632

/ 100 compat

Projected

133.8 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2852, 6865, 6632

Auto

18.4 14%

Teleop

69.2 52%

Endgame

46.0 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2013, 4688, 2609

/ 100 compat

Projected

168.7 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2013, 4688, 2609

Auto

33.9 20%

Teleop

94.6 55%

Endgame

43.0 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.33 · Blue 1.83

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score133.8pts

Blue projected score168.7pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample228alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 15%, blue 18%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -34.9
Score range: 82–221
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 381 vs event baseline 287.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

219.4Season APEX331.1

18.4Auto33.9

69.2Teleop94.6

46Endgame43

55Consistency20

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	30
teleop	61	183
endgame	30	59
foul	0	0
total	109	272

Result

Final score

109 – 272

Prediction correct · off by 64 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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