FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Technology Division

Qualification · Qualification 19

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

272.69 – 237.85

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

457 – 153

Prediction correct · off by 134.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 528.3 ±9.3

10167Jeunes Sans Frontières

Season APEX 63.9Event APEX 15.62Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

610Crescent Coyotes

Season APEX 215.3Event APEX 122.26Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8884Knight Owls

Season APEX 249.1Event APEX 134.81Rank 6Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 283.4 ±10.4

2634The Gryphons

Season APEX 81.6Event APEX 33.14Rank 37Record 5-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

4688Saints Bot

Season APEX 117.9Event APEX 67.64Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

781Kinetic Knights

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 137.07Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10167, 610, 8884

/ 100 compat

Projected

272.7 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10167, 610, 8884

Auto

69.9 26%

Teleop

176.6 65%

Endgame

25.7 9%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2634, 4688, 781

/ 100 compat

Projected

237.9 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2634, 4688, 781

Auto

44.2 18%

Teleop

139.3 58%

Endgame

56.0 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.01 · Blue 1.35

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score272.7pts

Blue projected score237.9pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample228alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 23%, blue 17%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 34.8
Score range: 191–320
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 610 vs event baseline 259.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

528.3Season APEX283.4

69.9Auto44.2

176.6Teleop139.3

25.7Endgame56

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	85	33
teleop	266	64
endgame	106	56
foul	0	0
total	457	153

Result

Final score

457 – 153

Prediction correct · off by 134.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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