FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Technology Division

Qualification · Qualification 18

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

338.89 – 229.92

80%20%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

392 – 374

Prediction correct · off by 98.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 501.1 ±9.8

7480Machine Mavericks

Season APEX 110.5Event APEX 77.06Rank 20Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

5885Villanova WiredCats

Season APEX 128.8Event APEX 163.18Rank 14Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11270Nova

Season APEX 261.8Event APEX 98.65Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 382.6 ±11

2935NACI Robotics

Season APEX 196.2Event APEX 96.03Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9782Wextech Titans

Season APEX 47.8Event APEX 26.08Rank 42Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10554Team VIPER

Season APEX 138.6Event APEX 107.81Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7480, 5885, 11270

/ 100 compat

Projected

338.9 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7480, 5885, 11270

Auto

74.7 22%

Teleop

197.1 58%

Endgame

65.9 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2935, 9782, 10554

/ 100 compat

Projected

229.9 pts

~1.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2935, 9782, 10554

Auto

27.3 12%

Teleop

138.2 60%

Endgame

63.2 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.22 · Blue 1.17

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score338.9pts

Blue projected score229.9pts

Red win probability80%

Event bonus sample228alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 20%, blue 25%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 109
Score range: 185–384
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 766 vs event baseline 252.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

501.1Season APEX382.6

74.7Auto27.3

197.1Teleop138.2

65.9Endgame63.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	100	45
teleop	234	168
endgame	58	161
foul	0	0
total	392	374

Result

Final score

392 – 374

Prediction correct · off by 98.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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