FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Technology Division

Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

313.43 – 87.27

94%6%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

327 – 104

Prediction correct · off by 15.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 534.6 ±9.8

9785Alectrona

A+

Season APEX 330.4Event APEX 151.67Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3543C4 Robotics

Season APEX 78.7Event APEX 103.31Rank 26Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5024Raider Robotics

Season APEX 125.5Event APEX 58.45Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 168.4 ±11

771SWAT

Season APEX 45.8Event APEX 69.95Rank 44Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 100

11002Montcalm Robotics

Season APEX 49.5Event APEX -11.54Rank 48Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8729Sparkling H2O

Season APEX 73.1Event APEX 28.86Rank 45Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9785, 3543, 5024

/ 100 compat

Projected

313.4 pts

~2.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9785, 3543, 5024

Auto

71.0 23%

Teleop

178.5 58%

Endgame

58.4 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 771, 11002, 8729

/ 100 compat

Projected

87.3 pts

~0.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 771, 11002, 8729

Auto

3.1 4%

Teleop

51.1 65%

Endgame

24.1 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.61 · Blue 0.54

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score313.4pts

Blue projected score87.3pts

Red win probability94%

Event bonus sample228alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 27%

Supercharged bonusred 18%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 226.2
Score range: 41–359
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 431 vs event baseline 254.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

534.6Season APEX168.4

71Auto3.1

178.5Teleop51.1

58.4Endgame24.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	101	23
teleop	181	28
endgame	45	38
foul	0	15
total	327	104

Result

Final score

327 – 104

Prediction correct · off by 15.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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