Qualification · Qualification 15
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
192.4 – 141.26
65%35%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
350 – 25
Prediction correct · off by 136.9 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 636.4 ±9.8
Season APEX 199.5Event APEX 56.51Rank 11Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 99.6Event APEX 53.89Rank 38Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 337.3Event APEX 82Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 230.7 ±9.8
Season APEX 89.2Event APEX 79.56Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 76.4Event APEX 19.64Rank 47Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 42.06Rank 43Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 4039, 2609, 7558
55
/ 100 compatProjected
192.4 pts
~2.0 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 4039, 2609, 7558
Auto
32.3 17%
Teleop
119.1 64%
Endgame
35.0 19%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 49%
Supercharged: 20%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 5408, 8349, 5719
52
/ 100 compatProjected
141.3 pts
~1.1 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 5408, 8349, 5719
Auto
41.3 29%
Teleop
67.6 47%
Endgame
34.9 24%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 49%
Supercharged: 20%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.02 · Blue 1.15
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score192.4pts
Blue projected score141.3pts
Red win probability65%
Event bonus sample228alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 49%, blue 28%
Supercharged bonusred 20%, blue 15%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%
- Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 51.1
- Score range
- 94–239
- Upset likelihood
- 35%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
636.4Season APEX230.7
32.3Auto41.3
119.1Teleop67.6
35Endgame34.9
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 55 | 16 |
| teleop | 239 | 9 |
| endgame | 46 | 0 |
| foul | 10 | 0 |
| total | 350 | 25 |
Result
Final score
350 – 25
Prediction correct · off by 136.9 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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