FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Technology Division

Qualification · Qualification 14

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

231.29 – 124.38

79%21%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

448 – 417

Prediction correct · off by 254.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 501.3 ±10.4

4152Hoya Robotics

Season APEX 152.3Event APEX 107.43Rank 13Record 8-3-1Status establishedConfidence 100

781Kinetic Knights

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 65.87Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2702Rebels

Season APEX 265.1Event APEX 57.99Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 553.3 ±9.8

9098FireHawks

Season APEX 192.4Event APEX 62.99Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1310Runnymede Robotics

Season APEX 111.8Event APEX 4.18Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8884Knight Owls

Season APEX 249.1Event APEX 57.21Rank 6Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4152, 781, 2702

/ 100 compat

Projected

231.3 pts

~2.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4152, 781, 2702

Auto

46.8 21%

Teleop

148.7 68%

Endgame

24.6 11%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9098, 1310, 8884

/ 100 compat

Projected

124.4 pts

~1.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9098, 1310, 8884

Auto

37.4 29%

Teleop

59.7 47%

Endgame

31.0 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.36 · Blue 1.19

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score231.3pts

Blue projected score124.4pts

Red win probability79%

Event bonus sample228alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 22%, blue 24%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 106.9
Score range: 80–275
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 865 vs event baseline 246.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

501.3Season APEX553.3

46.8Auto37.4

148.7Teleop59.7

24.6Endgame31

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	70	91
teleop	235	219
endgame	143	107
foul	0	0
total	448	417

Result

Final score

448 – 417

Prediction correct · off by 254.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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