Qualification · Qualification 13
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
128.19 – 147.6
44%56%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
390 – 47
Prediction missed · off by 181.2 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 426.2 ±9.8
Season APEX 117.6Event APEX 39.73Rank 19Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 215.3Event APEX 83.43Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 93.3Event APEX 5.03Rank 41Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 184.5 ±12.2
Season APEX 47.8Event APEX 83.43Rank 42Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 99.3Event APEX 59.14Rank 39Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 37.4Event APEX 5.03Rank 49Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 5032, 610, 2852
51
/ 100 compatProjected
128.2 pts
~1.6 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 5032, 610, 2852
Auto
32.0 25%
Teleop
58.9 45%
Endgame
38.6 30%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 45%
Supercharged: 25%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 9782, 8789, 6865
54
/ 100 compatProjected
147.6 pts
~1.6 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 9782, 8789, 6865
Auto
39.7 27%
Teleop
79.4 54%
Endgame
29.1 20%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 45%
Supercharged: 25%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.59 · Blue 1.61
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score128.2pts
Blue projected score147.6pts
Red win probability44%
Event bonus sample228alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 45%, blue 35%
Supercharged bonusred 25%, blue 12%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -19.4
- Score range
- 83–193
- Upset likelihood
- 44%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
426.2Season APEX184.5
32Auto39.7
58.9Teleop79.4
38.6Endgame29.1
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 59 | 8 |
| teleop | 223 | 19 |
| endgame | 108 | 20 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 390 | 47 |
Result
Final score
390 – 47
Prediction missed · off by 181.2 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
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