Qualification · Qualification 12
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
255.73 – 188.14
70%30%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
306 – 229
Prediction correct · off by 45.6 points
Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.
red allianceTotal Season APEX 388.9 ±10.4
Season APEX 128.8Event APEX 162.17Rank 14Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 196.2Event APEX 73.92Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 63.9Event APEX 19.64Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 337.3 ±10.4
Season APEX 78.7Event APEX 89.71Rank 26Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 138.6Event APEX 82.03Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 120Event APEX 16.4Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 5885, 2935, 10167
70
/ 100 compatProjected
255.7 pts
~2.1 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 5885, 2935, 10167
Auto
50.1 20%
Teleop
147.9 58%
Endgame
57.2 22%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 47%
Supercharged: 20%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 3543, 10554, 6978
58
/ 100 compatProjected
188.1 pts
~1.2 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 3543, 10554, 6978
Auto
35.2 19%
Teleop
86.8 46%
Endgame
66.7 35%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 47%
Supercharged: 20%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.09 · Blue 1.2
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score255.7pts
Blue projected score188.1pts
Red win probability70%
Event bonus sample228alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 47%, blue 43%
Supercharged bonusred 20%, blue 14%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 67.6
- Score range
- 144–300
- Upset likelihood
- 30%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
388.9Season APEX337.3
50.1Auto35.2
147.9Teleop86.8
57.2Endgame66.7
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 77 | 26 |
| teleop | 151 | 134 |
| endgame | 78 | 69 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 306 | 229 |
Result
Final score
306 – 229
Prediction correct · off by 45.6 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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