Qualification · Qualification 11
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
116.16 – 182.2
31%69%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
41 – 205
Prediction correct · off by 49 points
Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.
red allianceTotal Season APEX 204 ±11
Season APEX 81.6Event APEX 39.02Rank 37Record 5-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 72.9Event APEX 65.71Rank 33Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 49.5Event APEX 11.43Rank 48Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 444.2 ±9.8
Season APEX 110.5Event APEX 70.31Rank 20Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 215.8Event APEX 43.24Rank 35Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 117.9Event APEX 68.65Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 2634, 10611, 11002
48
/ 100 compatProjected
116.2 pts
~1.0 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 2634, 10611, 11002
Auto
23.8 20%
Teleop
60.5 52%
Endgame
32.5 28%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 29%
Supercharged: 11%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 7480, 188, 4688
56
/ 100 compatProjected
182.2 pts
~2.0 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 7480, 188, 4688
Auto
30.6 17%
Teleop
93.7 51%
Endgame
59.1 32%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 29%
Supercharged: 11%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.04 · Blue 1.99
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score116.2pts
Blue projected score182.2pts
Red win probability31%
Event bonus sample228alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 29%, blue 39%
Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 19%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -66
- Score range
- 69–229
- Upset likelihood
- 31%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
204Season APEX444.2
23.8Auto30.6
60.5Teleop93.7
32.5Endgame59.1
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 24 | 25 |
| teleop | 10 | 137 |
| endgame | 7 | 43 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 41 | 205 |
Result
Final score
41 – 205
Prediction correct · off by 49 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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