FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Technology Division

Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

141.71 – 194.86

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

376 – 118

Prediction missed · off by 155.6 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 547.6 ±9.3

6632Northview Robotics

Season APEX 88.7Event APEX 31.14Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3683Team DAVE

Season APEX 197.1Event APEX 68.57Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11270Nova

Season APEX 261.8Event APEX 42Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 223.2 ±10.4

771SWAT

Season APEX 45.8Event APEX 74Rank 44Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 100

3739Oakbotics

Season APEX 115.9Event APEX 58.86Rank 36Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9589Arcade Robotics

Season APEX 61.5Event APEX 62Rank 46Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6632, 3683, 11270

/ 100 compat

Projected

141.7 pts

~1.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6632, 3683, 11270

Auto

18.6 13%

Teleop

72.9 51%

Endgame

50.3 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 771, 3739, 9589

/ 100 compat

Projected

194.9 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 771, 3739, 9589

Auto

26.3 14%

Teleop

102.9 54%

Endgame

60.0 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.5 · Blue 1.76

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score141.7pts

Blue projected score194.9pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample228alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 27%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -53.1
Score range: 95–242
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 494 vs event baseline 260.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

547.6Season APEX223.2

18.6Auto26.3

72.9Teleop102.9

50.3Endgame60

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	55	9
teleop	243	64
endgame	73	40
foul	5	5
total	376	118

Result

Final score

376 – 118

Prediction missed · off by 155.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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