FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Technology Division

Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

485.21 – 354.53

84%16%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

600 – 240

Prediction correct · off by 114.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 828.8 ±9.3

5885Villanova WiredCats

Season APEX 128.8Event APEX 86.61Rank 14Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1241THEORY6

Season APEX 369.6Event APEX 194.33Rank 1Record 11-0-1Status establishedConfidence 100

9785Alectrona

A+

Season APEX 330.4Event APEX 204.27Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 530.5 ±9.3

5032The Falcons

Season APEX 117.6Event APEX 99.18Rank 19Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

188Blizzard

Season APEX 215.8Event APEX 87.55Rank 35Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3683Team DAVE

Season APEX 197.1Event APEX 167.8Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5885, 1241, 9785

/ 100 compat

Projected

485.2 pts

~2.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5885, 1241, 9785

Auto

113.1 23%

Teleop

280.0 58%

Endgame

93.8 19%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 29%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5032, 188, 3683

/ 100 compat

Projected

354.5 pts

~1.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5032, 188, 3683

Auto

58.5 17%

Teleop

196.7 57%

Endgame

90.1 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 29%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.5 · Blue 0.99

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score485.2pts

Blue projected score354.5pts

Red win probability84%

Event bonus sample228alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 29%, blue 20%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 130.7
Score range: 303–537
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 840 vs event baseline 287.8.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

828.8Season APEX530.5

113.1Auto58.5

280Teleop196.7

93.8Endgame90.1

26Consistency35

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	120	17
teleop	368	117
endgame	112	106
foul	0	0
total	600	240

Result

Final score

600 – 240

Prediction correct · off by 114.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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