FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Technology Division

Final · Finals 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

454.8 – 507.62

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

434 – 235

Prediction missed · off by 146.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 744.1 ±8.7

8349Newbotics

Season APEX 76.4Event APEX 16.38Rank 47Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9785Alectrona

A+

Season APEX 330.4Event APEX 204.44Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7558ALT-F4

Season APEX 337.3Event APEX 233.98Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 803.7 ±9.3

4946The Alpha Dogs

A+

Season APEX 323.6Event APEX 243.8Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1241THEORY6

Season APEX 369.6Event APEX 203.22Rank 1Record 11-0-1Status establishedConfidence 100

7480Machine Mavericks

Season APEX 110.5Event APEX 60.6Rank 20Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8349, 9785, 7558

/ 100 compat

Projected

454.8 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8349, 9785, 7558

Auto

87.7 20%

Teleop

266.5 59%

Endgame

94.3 21%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4946, 1241, 7480

/ 100 compat

Projected

507.6 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4946, 1241, 7480

Auto

119.0 23%

Teleop

294.6 56%

Endgame

109.4 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.36 · Blue 2.14

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score454.8pts

Blue projected score507.6pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample228alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 22%, blue 34%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -52.8
Score range: 403–560
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 669 vs event baseline 287.4.

← Previous

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

744.1Season APEX803.7

87.7Auto119

266.5Teleop294.6

94.3Endgame109.4

39Consistency29

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	95	16
teleop	210	112
endgame	99	102
foul	30	5
total	434	235

Result

Final score

434 – 235

Prediction missed · off by 146.7 pts