FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Technology Division

Final · Finals 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

490.37 – 568.42

27%73%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

191 – 419

Prediction correct · off by 224.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 744.1 ±8.7

8349Newbotics

Season APEX 76.4Event APEX 30.01Rank 47Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9785Alectrona

A+

Season APEX 330.4Event APEX 215.13Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7558ALT-F4

Season APEX 337.3Event APEX 245.23Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 803.7 ±9.3

7480Machine Mavericks

Season APEX 110.5Event APEX 87.88Rank 20Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

4946The Alpha Dogs

A+

Season APEX 323.6Event APEX 261.5Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1241THEORY6

Season APEX 369.6Event APEX 219.04Rank 1Record 11-0-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8349, 9785, 7558

/ 100 compat

Projected

490.4 pts

~1.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8349, 9785, 7558

Auto

89.9 19%

Teleop

290.7 60%

Endgame

101.6 21%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7480, 4946, 1241

/ 100 compat

Projected

568.4 pts

~2.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7480, 4946, 1241

Auto

124.5 21%

Teleop

338.9 57%

Endgame

127.9 22%

Strengths

· 4946 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.22 · Blue 2.28

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score490.4pts

Blue projected score568.4pts

Red win probability27%

Event bonus sample228alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 22%, blue 34%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -78
Score range: 438–620
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 610 vs event baseline 286.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

744.1Season APEX803.7

89.9Auto124.5

290.7Teleop338.9

101.6Endgame127.9

52Consistency29

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	79	101
teleop	109	203
endgame	3	105
foul	0	10
total	191	419

Result

Final score

191 – 419

Prediction correct · off by 224.4 pts

Match videos

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