Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
407.42 – 327.21
73%27%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
323 – 341
Prediction missed · off by 49.1 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 494.1 ±9.8
Season APEX 69.5Event APEX 39.08Rank 39Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 240.1Event APEX 205.89Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 184.5Event APEX 162.45Rank 5Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 499.5 ±9.8
Season APEX 82.1Event APEX 13.66Rank 35Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 210.5Event APEX 141.44Rank 14Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 206.9Event APEX 172.11Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 5036, 7520, 3161
80
/ 100 compatProjected
407.4 pts
~2.0 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 5036, 7520, 3161
Auto
75.0 19%
Teleop
230.0 58%
Endgame
94.2 24%
Strengths
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 34%
Supercharged: 18%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 3756, 4907, 1360
73
/ 100 compatProjected
327.2 pts
~1.1 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 3756, 4907, 1360
Auto
65.5 20%
Teleop
167.3 52%
Endgame
90.5 28%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 34%
Supercharged: 18%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2 · Blue 1.11
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score407.4pts
Blue projected score327.2pts
Red win probability73%
Event bonus sample230alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 34%, blue 40%
Supercharged bonusred 18%, blue 14%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 80.2
- Score range
- 276–458
- Upset likelihood
- 27%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
494.1Season APEX499.5
75Auto65.5
230Teleop167.3
94.2Endgame90.5
35Consistency79
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 55 | 97 |
| teleop | 155 | 168 |
| endgame | 113 | 76 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 323 | 341 |
Result
Final score
323 – 341
Prediction missed · off by 49.1 pts
Match videos
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