FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Science Division

Playoff · Playoff Match 8 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

440.46 – 481.67

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

427 – 388

Prediction missed · off by 53.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 741.2 ±8.1

772Sabre Bytes Robotics

Season APEX 124.3Event APEX 16.78Rank 41Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4678CyberCavs

A+

Season APEX 303.3Event APEX 213.1Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1325Inverse Paradox

A+

Season APEX 313.6Event APEX 210.58Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 690.8 ±9.3

4476W.A.F.F.L.E.S.

Season APEX 284.5Event APEX 214.13Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9562Royal Robotics

Season APEX 126.1Event APEX 86.15Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5406Celt-X

Season APEX 280.2Event APEX 181.39Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 772, 4678, 1325

/ 100 compat

Projected

440.5 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 772, 4678, 1325

Auto

79.9 18%

Teleop

250.3 58%

Endgame

103.2 24%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4476, 9562, 5406

/ 100 compat

Projected

481.7 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4476, 9562, 5406

Auto

77.9 16%

Teleop

276.4 58%

Endgame

125.8 26%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.25 · Blue 2.04

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score440.5pts

Blue projected score481.7pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 27%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -41.2
Score range: 389–533
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 815 vs event baseline 283.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

741.2Season APEX690.8

79.9Auto77.9

250.3Teleop276.4

103.2Endgame125.8

28Consistency42

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	80	43
teleop	273	174
endgame	74	166
foul	0	5
total	427	388

Result

Final score

427 – 388

Prediction missed · off by 53.6 pts

Match videos

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