FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Science Division

Playoff · Playoff Match 7 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

743.79 – 402.64

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

623 – 423

Prediction correct · off by 70.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 1010.2 ±8.7

7712ACCN UMOJA

Season APEX 183Event APEX 72.44Rank 21Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2056OP Robotics

Season APEX 404.1Event APEX 317.99Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1114Simbotics

Season APEX 423.1Event APEX 353.36Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 494.1 ±9.8

5036The Robo Devils

Season APEX 69.5Event APEX 37.51Rank 39Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7520Team MineKee

Season APEX 240.1Event APEX 205.05Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3161Tronic Titans

Season APEX 184.5Event APEX 160.08Rank 5Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7712, 2056, 1114

/ 100 compat

Projected

743.8 pts

~2.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7712, 2056, 1114

Auto

161.1 22%

Teleop

415.0 56%

Endgame

167.0 22%

Strengths

· 1114 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 32%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5036, 7520, 3161

/ 100 compat

Projected

402.6 pts

~0.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5036, 7520, 3161

Auto

67.2 17%

Teleop

226.8 58%

Endgame

98.7 25%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 32%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.81 · Blue 0.57

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score743.8pts

Blue projected score402.6pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 32%, blue 18%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 341.2
Score range: 352–795
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 1046 vs event baseline 280.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

1010.2Season APEX494.1

161.1Auto67.2

415Teleop226.8

167Endgame98.7

0Consistency36

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	139	112
teleop	369	241
endgame	100	70
foul	15	0
total	623	423

Result

Final score

623 – 423

Prediction correct · off by 70.6 pts

Match videos

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