FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Science Division

Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

366.95 – 295.94

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

339 – 476

Prediction missed · off by 104 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 502.4 ±10.4

5409Chargers

Season APEX 170.5Event APEX 103.78Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4069Lo-Ellen Robotics

Season APEX 170.9Event APEX 141.54Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1305Ice Cubed

Season APEX 161Event APEX 121.63Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 499.5 ±9.8

3756RamFerno

Season APEX 82.1Event APEX 4.64Rank 35Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4907Thunderstamps

Season APEX 210.5Event APEX 130.55Rank 14Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1360Orbit Robotics

Season APEX 206.9Event APEX 160.75Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5409, 4069, 1305

/ 100 compat

Projected

367 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5409, 4069, 1305

Auto

72.8 20%

Teleop

191.8 53%

Endgame

99.5 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 26%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3756, 4907, 1360

/ 100 compat

Projected

295.9 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3756, 4907, 1360

Auto

57.3 20%

Teleop

144.4 49%

Endgame

90.5 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 26%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.21 · Blue 1.15

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score367pts

Blue projected score295.9pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 26%, blue 14%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 71
Score range: 246–417
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 815 vs event baseline 279.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

502.4Season APEX499.5

72.8Auto57.3

191.8Teleop144.4

99.5Endgame90.5

29Consistency95

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	80	106
teleop	148	277
endgame	111	88
foul	0	5
total	339	476

Result

Final score

339 – 476

Prediction missed · off by 104 pts

Match videos

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