FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Science Division

Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

370.29 – 333.77

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

249 – 494

Prediction missed · off by 140.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 478.3 ±9.8

7200Banting Robotics

Season APEX 114.3Event APEX 119.23Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10015Bubbles

Season APEX 201.9Event APEX 95.33Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

865WARP7

Season APEX 162.1Event APEX 155.73Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 558.4 ±9.8

7902Markham FireBirds

Season APEX 133.7Event APEX 98.84Rank 19Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2200BCR Blackout

Season APEX 262Event APEX 173.14Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4920Belle River Boltheads

Season APEX 162.7Event APEX 61.79Rank 8Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7200, 10015, 865

/ 100 compat

Projected

370.3 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7200, 10015, 865

Auto

72.1 20%

Teleop

218.1 59%

Endgame

78.9 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7902, 2200, 4920

/ 100 compat

Projected

333.8 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7902, 2200, 4920

Auto

91.8 29%

Teleop

165.0 52%

Endgame

63.5 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.95 · Blue 1.41

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score370.3pts

Blue projected score333.8pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 20%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 36.5
Score range: 284–420
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 743 vs event baseline 278.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

478.3Season APEX558.4

72.1Auto91.8

218.1Teleop165

78.9Endgame63.5

45Consistency32

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	85	99
teleop	164	237
endgame	0	128
foul	0	30
total	249	494

Result

Final score

249 – 494

Prediction missed · off by 140.8 pts

Match videos

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