FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Science Division

Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

507.9 – 273.84

95%5%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

392 – 381

Prediction correct · off by 111.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 690.8 ±9.3

4476W.A.F.F.L.E.S.

Season APEX 284.5Event APEX 222.56Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9562Royal Robotics

Season APEX 126.1Event APEX 94.8Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5406Celt-X

Season APEX 280.2Event APEX 190.54Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 499.5 ±9.8

3756RamFerno

Season APEX 82.1Event APEX -0.07Rank 35Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4907Thunderstamps

Season APEX 210.5Event APEX 122.04Rank 14Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1360Orbit Robotics

Season APEX 206.9Event APEX 151.87Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4476, 9562, 5406

/ 100 compat

Projected

507.9 pts

~2.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4476, 9562, 5406

Auto

84.9 17%

Teleop

289.6 57%

Endgame

133.9 26%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3756, 4907, 1360

/ 100 compat

Projected

273.8 pts

~0.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3756, 4907, 1360

Auto

49.4 18%

Teleop

129.2 48%

Endgame

91.8 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.68 · Blue 0.67

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score507.9pts

Blue projected score273.8pts

Red win probability95%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 27%, blue 14%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 234.1
Score range: 224–558
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 773 vs event baseline 276.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

690.8Season APEX499.5

84.9Auto49.4

289.6Teleop129.2

133.9Endgame91.8

32Consistency96

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	53	88
teleop	230	204
endgame	99	84
foul	10	5
total	392	381

Result

Final score

392 – 381

Prediction correct · off by 111.5 pts

Match videos

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