Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
453.35 – 378.68
72%28%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
400 – 327
Prediction correct · off by 52.5 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 741.2 ±8.1
Season APEX 124.3Event APEX 21.56Rank 41Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 303.3Event APEX 220.46Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 313.6Event APEX 211.33Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 502.4 ±10.4
Season APEX 170.5Event APEX 108.51Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 170.9Event APEX 145.37Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 161Event APEX 124.8Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 772, 4678, 1325
82
/ 100 compatProjected
453.4 pts
~1.9 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 772, 4678, 1325
Auto
82.5 19%
Teleop
258.5 58%
Endgame
104.9 24%
Strengths
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 35%
Supercharged: 14%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 5409, 4069, 1305
77
/ 100 compatProjected
378.7 pts
~1.4 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 5409, 4069, 1305
Auto
74.0 20%
Teleop
209.8 56%
Endgame
91.2 24%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 35%
Supercharged: 14%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.94 · Blue 1.36
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score453.4pts
Blue projected score378.7pts
Red win probability72%
Event bonus sample230alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 35%, blue 52%
Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 26%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 74.7
- Score range
- 329–503
- Upset likelihood
- 28%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
741.2Season APEX502.4
82.5Auto74
258.5Teleop209.8
104.9Endgame91.2
40Consistency25
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 75 | 68 |
| teleop | 222 | 121 |
| endgame | 98 | 138 |
| foul | 5 | 0 |
| total | 400 | 327 |
Result
Final score
400 – 327
Prediction correct · off by 52.5 pts
Match videos
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