Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
394.6 – 313.95
73%27%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
448 – 415
Prediction correct · off by 77.2 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 494.1 ±9.8
Season APEX 69.5Event APEX 35.92Rank 39Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 240.1Event APEX 203.16Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 184.5Event APEX 155.52Rank 5Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 558.4 ±9.8
Season APEX 133.7Event APEX 91.83Rank 19Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 262Event APEX 165.93Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 162.7Event APEX 56.19Rank 8Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 5036, 7520, 3161
80
/ 100 compatProjected
394.6 pts
~2.0 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 5036, 7520, 3161
Auto
68.3 18%
Teleop
221.4 58%
Endgame
93.5 24%
Strengths
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 34%
Supercharged: 18%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 7902, 2200, 4920
65
/ 100 compatProjected
314 pts
~1.2 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 7902, 2200, 4920
Auto
94.4 32%
Teleop
165.0 55%
Endgame
38.9 13%
Strengths
- · Strong autonomous coverage
Weaknesses
- · Thin endgame coverage
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 34%
Supercharged: 18%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2 · Blue 1.17
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score394.6pts
Blue projected score314pts
Red win probability73%
Event bonus sample230alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 34%, blue 46%
Supercharged bonusred 18%, blue 15%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 80.7
- Score range
- 264–445
- Upset likelihood
- 27%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
494.1Season APEX558.4
68.3Auto94.4
221.4Teleop165
93.5Endgame38.9
45Consistency33
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 64 | 81 |
| teleop | 252 | 167 |
| endgame | 127 | 162 |
| foul | 5 | 5 |
| total | 448 | 415 |
Result
Final score
448 – 415
Prediction correct · off by 77.2 pts
Match videos
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