FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Science Division

Playoff · Playoff Match 1 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

716.25 – 383.67

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

868 – 324

Prediction correct · off by 105.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 1010.2 ±8.7

7712ACCN UMOJA

Season APEX 183Event APEX 61.62Rank 21Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2056OP Robotics

Season APEX 404.1Event APEX 309.33Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1114Simbotics

Season APEX 423.1Event APEX 345.3Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 478.3 ±9.8

7200Banting Robotics

Season APEX 114.3Event APEX 126.02Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10015Bubbles

Season APEX 201.9Event APEX 98.38Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

865WARP7

Season APEX 162.1Event APEX 159.27Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7712, 2056, 1114

/ 100 compat

Projected

716.3 pts

~2.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7712, 2056, 1114

Auto

161.9 23%

Teleop

395.1 55%

Endgame

158.3 22%

Strengths

· 1114 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 32%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7200, 10015, 865

/ 100 compat

Projected

383.7 pts

~0.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7200, 10015, 865

Auto

77.1 20%

Teleop

234.5 61%

Endgame

72.2 19%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 32%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.81 · Blue 0.76

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score716.3pts

Blue projected score383.7pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 32%, blue 20%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 332.6
Score range: 335–765
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 1192 vs event baseline 272.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

1010.2Season APEX478.3

161.9Auto77.1

395.1Teleop234.5

158.3Endgame72.2

18Consistency42

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	160	52
teleop	500	155
endgame	208	112
foul	0	5
total	868	324

Result

Final score

868 – 324

Prediction correct · off by 105.7 pts

Match videos

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