FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Science Division

Playoff · Playoff Match 13 R5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

426.31 – 468.81

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

535 – 261

Prediction missed · off by 158.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 741.2 ±8.1

772Sabre Bytes Robotics

Season APEX 124.3Event APEX 12.27Rank 41Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4678CyberCavs

A+

Season APEX 303.3Event APEX 208.06Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1325Inverse Paradox

A+

Season APEX 313.6Event APEX 205.98Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 690.8 ±9.3

4476W.A.F.F.L.E.S.

Season APEX 284.5Event APEX 211.07Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9562Royal Robotics

Season APEX 126.1Event APEX 81.76Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5406Celt-X

Season APEX 280.2Event APEX 175.98Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 772, 4678, 1325

/ 100 compat

Projected

426.3 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 772, 4678, 1325

Auto

79.3 19%

Teleop

241.7 58%

Endgame

95.7 23%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4476, 9562, 5406

/ 100 compat

Projected

468.8 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4476, 9562, 5406

Auto

73.4 16%

Teleop

262.7 56%

Endgame

129.8 28%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.25 · Blue 2.04

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score426.3pts

Blue projected score468.8pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 27%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -42.5
Score range: 374–521
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 796 vs event baseline 288.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

741.2Season APEX690.8

79.3Auto73.4

241.7Teleop262.7

95.7Endgame129.8

25Consistency46

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	124	58
teleop	317	147
endgame	89	56
foul	5	0
total	535	261

Result

Final score

535 – 261

Prediction missed · off by 158.3 pts

Match videos

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