FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Science Division

Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

482.55 – 329.97

87%13%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

372 – 349

Prediction correct · off by 64.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 690.8 ±9.3

4476W.A.F.F.L.E.S.

Season APEX 284.5Event APEX 215.76Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9562Royal Robotics

Season APEX 126.1Event APEX 86.05Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5406Celt-X

Season APEX 280.2Event APEX 180.74Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 499.5 ±9.8

3756RamFerno

Season APEX 82.1Event APEX 14.59Rank 35Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4907Thunderstamps

Season APEX 210.5Event APEX 143.28Rank 14Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1360Orbit Robotics

Season APEX 206.9Event APEX 172.1Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4476, 9562, 5406

/ 100 compat

Projected

482.6 pts

~2.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4476, 9562, 5406

Auto

76.6 16%

Teleop

268.2 56%

Endgame

135.8 28%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3756, 4907, 1360

/ 100 compat

Projected

330 pts

~0.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3756, 4907, 1360

Auto

69.9 21%

Teleop

168.3 52%

Endgame

88.5 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.52 · Blue 0.83

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score482.6pts

Blue projected score330pts

Red win probability87%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 27%, blue 14%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 152.6
Score range: 278–535
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 721 vs event baseline 288.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

690.8Season APEX499.5

76.6Auto69.9

268.2Teleop168.3

135.8Endgame88.5

41Consistency88

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	51	96
teleop	224	180
endgame	87	68
foul	10	5
total	372	349

Result

Final score

372 – 349

Prediction correct · off by 64.8 pts

Match videos

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