FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Science Division

Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

724.02 – 438.38

97%3%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

594 – 361

Prediction correct · off by 103.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 1010.2 ±8.7

7712ACCN UMOJA

Season APEX 183Event APEX 66.05Rank 21Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2056OP Robotics

Season APEX 404.1Event APEX 311.59Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1114Simbotics

Season APEX 423.1Event APEX 346.38Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 741.2 ±8.1

772Sabre Bytes Robotics

Season APEX 124.3Event APEX 16.54Rank 41Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4678CyberCavs

A+

Season APEX 303.3Event APEX 211.78Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1325Inverse Paradox

A+

Season APEX 313.6Event APEX 210.06Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7712, 2056, 1114

/ 100 compat

Projected

724 pts

~2.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7712, 2056, 1114

Auto

157.2 22%

Teleop

408.1 57%

Endgame

155.6 22%

Strengths

· 1114 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 32%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 772, 4678, 1325

/ 100 compat

Projected

438.4 pts

~0.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 772, 4678, 1325

Auto

80.0 18%

Teleop

255.2 59%

Endgame

97.4 23%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 32%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.79 · Blue 0.56

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score724pts

Blue projected score438.4pts

Red win probability97%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 32%, blue 14%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 285.6
Score range: 386–776
Upset likelihood: 3%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 955 vs event baseline 286.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

1010.2Season APEX741.2

157.2Auto80

408.1Teleop255.2

155.6Endgame97.4

0Consistency24

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	157	76
teleop	302	169
endgame	130	86
foul	5	30
total	594	361

Result

Final score

594 – 361

Prediction correct · off by 103.7 pts

Match videos

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