FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Science Division

Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

466.79 – 363.8

78%22%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

574 – 407

Prediction correct · off by 75.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 690.8 ±9.3

4476W.A.F.F.L.E.S.

Season APEX 284.5Event APEX 209.66Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9562Royal Robotics

Season APEX 126.1Event APEX 81.25Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5406Celt-X

Season APEX 280.2Event APEX 175.88Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 558.4 ±9.8

7902Markham FireBirds

Season APEX 133.7Event APEX 109.91Rank 19Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2200BCR Blackout

Season APEX 262Event APEX 182.95Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4920Belle River Boltheads

Season APEX 162.7Event APEX 70.94Rank 8Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4476, 9562, 5406

/ 100 compat

Projected

466.8 pts

~2.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4476, 9562, 5406

Auto

72.1 16%

Teleop

259.9 56%

Endgame

132.5 29%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7902, 2200, 4920

/ 100 compat

Projected

363.8 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7902, 2200, 4920

Auto

93.0 27%

Teleop

179.4 52%

Endgame

74.9 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.35 · Blue 1.06

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score466.8pts

Blue projected score363.8pts

Red win probability78%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 27%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 103
Score range: 313–518
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 981 vs event baseline 284.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

690.8Season APEX558.4

72.1Auto93

259.9Teleop179.4

132.5Endgame74.9

49Consistency27

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	104	97
teleop	313	188
endgame	157	117
foul	0	5
total	574	407

Result

Final score

574 – 407

Prediction correct · off by 75.2 pts

Match videos

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