FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Science Division

Qualification · Qualification 99

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

92.94 – 286.82

8%92%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

129 – 321

Prediction correct · off by 35.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 208.8 ±10.4

10514Mixed Métal

Season APEX 58.9Event APEX 16.4Rank 42Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2708Lake Effect Robotics

Season APEX 73.2Event APEX 19.56Rank 37Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5596Wolverine Robotics

Season APEX 76.7Event APEX 56.98Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 466.2 ±10.4

9262Humberside Huskies

Season APEX 98.3Event APEX 19.96Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1305Ice Cubed

Season APEX 161Event APEX 118.6Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1360Orbit Robotics

Season APEX 206.9Event APEX 148.26Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10514, 2708, 5596

/ 100 compat

Projected

92.9 pts

~0.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10514, 2708, 5596

Auto

28.0 35%

Teleop

25.2 31%

Endgame

26.9 34%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9262, 1305, 1360

/ 100 compat

Projected

286.8 pts

~2.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9262, 1305, 1360

Auto

51.0 18%

Teleop

121.4 43%

Endgame

107.8 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.7 · Blue 2.51

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score92.9pts

Blue projected score286.8pts

Red win probability8%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 15%, blue 16%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -193.9
Score range: 44–336
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 450 vs event baseline 272.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

208.8Season APEX466.2

28Auto51

25.2Teleop121.4

26.9Endgame107.8

25Consistency60

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	38
teleop	69	207
endgame	50	76
foul	0	0
total	129	321

Result

Final score

129 – 321

Prediction correct · off by 35.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree