FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Science Division

Qualification · Qualification 98

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

103.62 – 238.82

16%84%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

139 – 203

Prediction correct · off by 35.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 202 ±10.4

4308ABSOLUTE ROBOTICS

Season APEX 75.7Event APEX 38.83Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5870League of Logic

Season APEX 56.8Event APEX 30.84Rank 43Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5036The Robo Devils

Season APEX 69.5Event APEX 33.95Rank 39Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 336.9 ±10.4

2706Merge Robotics

Season APEX 109Event APEX 41.24Rank 50Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5689CK Cyber Pack

Season APEX 43.4Event APEX 43.2Rank 32Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3161Tronic Titans

Season APEX 184.5Event APEX 154.38Rank 5Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4308, 5870, 5036

/ 100 compat

Projected

103.6 pts

~0.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4308, 5870, 5036

Auto

20.4 20%

Teleop

60.6 59%

Endgame

21.4 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2706, 5689, 3161

/ 100 compat

Projected

238.8 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2706, 5689, 3161

Auto

47.4 20%

Teleop

115.1 49%

Endgame

70.3 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.71 · Blue 2.22

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score103.6pts

Blue projected score238.8pts

Red win probability16%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 29%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 14%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -135.2
Score range: 55–288
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 342 vs event baseline 273.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

202Season APEX336.9

20.4Auto47.4

60.6Teleop115.1

21.4Endgame70.3

59Consistency46

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	40	57
teleop	49	85
endgame	45	56
foul	5	5
total	139	203

Result

Final score

139 – 203

Prediction correct · off by 35.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree