FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Science Division

Qualification · Qualification 97

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

12.8 – 593.94

2%98%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

40 – 690

Prediction correct · off by 61.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 266.7 ±10.5

772Sabre Bytes Robotics

Season APEX 124.3Event APEX 17.92Rank 41Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9659Vanier Vikings

Season APEX 82Event APEX 16.69Rank 36Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6975The Neil McNeil Brotherhood Bots

Season APEX 60.4Event APEX -21.81Rank 48Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 855.6 ±9.3

1114Simbotics

Season APEX 423.1Event APEX 334.45Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2200BCR Blackout

Season APEX 262Event APEX 156.62Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5409Chargers

Season APEX 170.5Event APEX 102.87Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 772, 9659, 6975

/ 100 compat

Projected

12.8 pts

~0.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 772, 9659, 6975

Auto

17.0 100%

Teleop

-10.6 0%

Endgame

7.0 52%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1114, 2200, 5409

/ 100 compat

Projected

593.9 pts

~2.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1114, 2200, 5409

Auto

147.4 25%

Teleop

320.0 55%

Endgame

118.7 20%

Strengths

· 1114 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.37 · Blue 2.78

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score12.8pts

Blue projected score593.9pts

Red win probability2%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 22%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 30%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -581.1
Score range: -36–643
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 730 vs event baseline 272.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

266.7Season APEX855.6

17Auto147.4

-10.6Teleop320

7Endgame118.7

56Consistency17

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	170
teleop	13	295
endgame	12	220
foul	0	5
total	40	690

Result

Final score

40 – 690

Prediction correct · off by 61.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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