FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Science Division

Qualification · Qualification 96

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

220.59 – 242.59

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

315 – 273

Prediction missed · off by 62.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 402.6 ±10.4

4920Belle River Boltheads

Season APEX 162.7Event APEX 49.12Rank 8Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7902Markham FireBirds

Season APEX 133.7Event APEX 82.74Rank 19Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11227Goose Goose Duck

Season APEX 106.2Event APEX 88.73Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 529.9 ±9.3

4907Thunderstamps

Season APEX 210.5Event APEX 116.87Rank 14Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4976Revolt Robotics

Season APEX 136.4Event APEX 65.2Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7712ACCN UMOJA

Season APEX 183Event APEX 60.52Rank 21Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4920, 7902, 11227

/ 100 compat

Projected

220.6 pts

~1.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4920, 7902, 11227

Auto

48.3 24%

Teleop

107.0 52%

Endgame

49.7 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4907, 4976, 7712

/ 100 compat

Projected

242.6 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4907, 4976, 7712

Auto

53.8 22%

Teleop

132.6 55%

Endgame

55.3 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.51 · Blue 1.7

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score220.6pts

Blue projected score242.6pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 14%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -22
Score range: 172–292
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 588 vs event baseline 272.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

402.6Season APEX529.9

48.3Auto53.8

107Teleop132.6

49.7Endgame55.3

80Consistency76

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	58	44
teleop	202	133
endgame	40	91
foul	15	5
total	315	273

Result

Final score

315 – 273

Prediction missed · off by 62.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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