FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Science Division

Qualification · Qualification 95

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

208.01 – 408.26

8%92%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

114 – 530

Prediction correct · off by 107.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 266 ±11

7200Banting Robotics

Season APEX 114.3Event APEX 133.55Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5672First Nations-STEM

Season APEX 76.8Event APEX 39.51Rank 33Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3560MechaWolves

Season APEX 74.9Event APEX 34.95Rank 49Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 615.2 ±9.8

9562Royal Robotics

Season APEX 126.1Event APEX 82.87Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2056OP Robotics

Season APEX 404.1Event APEX 302.03Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7659HNMCS Robotics

Season APEX 85Event APEX 23.36Rank 40Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7200, 5672, 3560

/ 100 compat

Projected

208 pts

~0.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7200, 5672, 3560

Auto

32.9 16%

Teleop

126.2 62%

Endgame

43.1 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9562, 2056, 7659

/ 100 compat

Projected

408.3 pts

~2.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9562, 2056, 7659

Auto

102.0 25%

Teleop

226.8 55%

Endgame

81.6 20%

Strengths

· 2056 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.72 · Blue 2.6

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score208pts

Blue projected score408.3pts

Red win probability8%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 30%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -200.2
Score range: 159–457
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 644 vs event baseline 271.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

266Season APEX615.2

32.9Auto102

126.2Teleop226.8

43.1Endgame81.6

5Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	136
teleop	33	310
endgame	41	84
foul	10	0
total	114	530

Result

Final score

114 – 530

Prediction correct · off by 107.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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