FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Science Division

Qualification · Qualification 94

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

385.01 – 140.24

95%5%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

485 – 170

Prediction correct · off by 64.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 511.7 ±9.8

9263ALD Lions

Season APEX 100.7Event APEX 55.37Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7520Team MineKee

Season APEX 240.1Event APEX 194.9Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4069Lo-Ellen Robotics

Season APEX 170.9Event APEX 134.74Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 243.4 ±10.4

7757Atomic Dishwashers

Season APEX 49.7Event APEX 50.82Rank 44Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6875Amazon Warriors Robotics

Season APEX 67.3Event APEX 17.52Rank 45Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2386Trojans

Season APEX 126.4Event APEX 71.9Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9263, 7520, 4069

/ 100 compat

Projected

385 pts

~2.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9263, 7520, 4069

Auto

49.8 13%

Teleop

237.2 62%

Endgame

94.8 25%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 26%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7757, 6875, 2386

/ 100 compat

Projected

140.2 pts

~0.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7757, 6875, 2386

Auto

38.4 28%

Teleop

69.1 50%

Endgame

29.5 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 26%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.7 · Blue 0.54

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score385pts

Blue projected score140.2pts

Red win probability95%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 26%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 6%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 244.8
Score range: 91–434
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 655 vs event baseline 271.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

511.7Season APEX243.4

49.8Auto38.4

237.2Teleop69.1

94.8Endgame29.5

41Consistency74

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	76	52
teleop	309	36
endgame	95	67
foul	5	15
total	485	170

Result

Final score

485 – 170

Prediction correct · off by 64.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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