FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Science Division

Qualification · Qualification 93

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

171.55 – 168.66

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

277 – 275

Prediction correct · off by 105.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 268.5 ±10.4

9580Grizzly Gears

Season APEX 51.8Event APEX -3.85Rank 46Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1334OT Devils

Season APEX 86.9Event APEX 46.73Rank 29Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9569Milliken Mills Silver Knights

Season APEX 129.8Event APEX 128.67Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 304.2 ±11

865WARP7

Season APEX 162.1Event APEX 148.66Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

919PANTHERA TIGRIS

Season APEX 58.5Event APEX -8.35Rank 47Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11428Horns of Steel

Season APEX 83.6Event APEX 28.35Rank 38Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9580, 1334, 9569

/ 100 compat

Projected

171.5 pts

~1.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9580, 1334, 9569

Auto

20.5 12%

Teleop

98.9 60%

Endgame

46.2 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 865, 919, 11428

/ 100 compat

Projected

168.7 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 865, 919, 11428

Auto

32.5 20%

Teleop

91.1 56%

Endgame

37.8 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.53 · Blue 1.56

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score171.5pts

Blue projected score168.7pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 2.9
Score range: 120–221
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 552 vs event baseline 271.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

268.5Season APEX304.2

20.5Auto32.5

98.9Teleop91.1

46.2Endgame37.8

81Consistency11

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	46	77
teleop	125	150
endgame	101	48
foul	5	0
total	277	275

Result

Final score

277 – 275

Prediction correct · off by 105.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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