FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Science Division

Qualification · Qualification 92

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

456.82 – 388.67

70%30%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

338 – 492

Prediction missed · off by 111.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 585.1 ±9.8

9575Silver Robotics

Season APEX 85.3Event APEX 39.14Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5596Wolverine Robotics

Season APEX 76.7Event APEX 69.38Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1114Simbotics

Season APEX 423.1Event APEX 348.3Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 538.5 ±9.8

5036The Robo Devils

Season APEX 69.5Event APEX 25.83Rank 39Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3161Tronic Titans

Season APEX 184.5Event APEX 145.47Rank 5Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4476W.A.F.F.L.E.S.

Season APEX 284.5Event APEX 217.37Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9575, 5596, 1114

/ 100 compat

Projected

456.8 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9575, 5596, 1114

Auto

92.8 21%

Teleop

229.9 51%

Endgame

126.8 28%

Strengths

· 1114 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5036, 3161, 4476

/ 100 compat

Projected

388.7 pts

~1.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5036, 3161, 4476

Auto

53.8 14%

Teleop

216.9 58%

Endgame

105.4 28%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.17 · Blue 1.18

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score456.8pts

Blue projected score388.7pts

Red win probability70%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 21%, blue 20%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 68.1
Score range: 340–506
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 830 vs event baseline 269.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

585.1Season APEX538.5

92.8Auto53.8

229.9Teleop216.9

126.8Endgame105.4

2Consistency82

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	98	99
teleop	121	284
endgame	104	109
foul	15	0
total	338	492

Result

Final score

338 – 492

Prediction missed · off by 111.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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