FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Science Division

Qualification · Qualification 91

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

213.7 – 236.09

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

303 – 305

Prediction correct · off by 79.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 402.2 ±10.4

4976Revolt Robotics

Season APEX 136.4Event APEX 58.5Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1360Orbit Robotics

Season APEX 206.9Event APEX 145.89Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10514Mixed Métal

Season APEX 58.9Event APEX 9.31Rank 42Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 523.6 ±9.9

7712ACCN UMOJA

Season APEX 183Event APEX 59.03Rank 21Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6975The Neil McNeil Brotherhood Bots

Season APEX 60.4Event APEX -24.57Rank 48Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5406Celt-X

Season APEX 280.2Event APEX 201.63Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4976, 1360, 10514

/ 100 compat

Projected

213.7 pts

~1.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4976, 1360, 10514

Auto

40.8 19%

Teleop

103.2 49%

Endgame

68.2 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7712, 6975, 5406

/ 100 compat

Projected

236.1 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7712, 6975, 5406

Auto

49.6 21%

Teleop

129.9 55%

Endgame

57.7 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.52 · Blue 1.68

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score213.7pts

Blue projected score236.1pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 15%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -22.4
Score range: 166–284
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 608 vs event baseline 269.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

402.2Season APEX523.6

40.8Auto49.6

103.2Teleop129.9

68.2Endgame57.7

76Consistency25

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	41	74
teleop	187	161
endgame	70	70
foul	5	0
total	303	305

Result

Final score

303 – 305

Prediction correct · off by 79.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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