FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Science Division

Qualification · Qualification 90

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

186.59 – 261.33

28%72%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

112 – 173

Prediction correct · off by 81.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 318 ±11

3756RamFerno

Season APEX 82.1Event APEX 14.91Rank 35Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3560MechaWolves

Season APEX 74.9Event APEX 42.63Rank 49Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1305Ice Cubed

Season APEX 161Event APEX 129.05Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 372.3 ±9.8

7902Markham FireBirds

Season APEX 133.7Event APEX 92.28Rank 19Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

772Sabre Bytes Robotics

Season APEX 124.3Event APEX 28.07Rank 41Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7200Banting Robotics

Season APEX 114.3Event APEX 140.98Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3756, 3560, 1305

/ 100 compat

Projected

186.6 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3756, 3560, 1305

Auto

48.0 25%

Teleop

84.7 45%

Endgame

56.3 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7902, 772, 7200

/ 100 compat

Projected

261.3 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7902, 772, 7200

Auto

57.2 23%

Teleop

153.5 61%

Endgame

40.0 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.1 · Blue 1.82

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score186.6pts

Blue projected score261.3pts

Red win probability28%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -74.7
Score range: 138–310
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 285 vs event baseline 270.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

318Season APEX372.3

48Auto57.2

84.7Teleop153.5

56.3Endgame40

17Consistency40

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	51	38
teleop	56	72
endgame	0	63
foul	5	0
total	112	173

Result

Final score

112 – 173

Prediction correct · off by 81.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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