FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Science Division

Qualification · Qualification 9

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

125.76 – 283.18

12%88%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

232 – 454

Prediction correct · off by 138.5 points

Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 377.4 ±11

1360Orbit Robotics

Season APEX 206.9Event APEX -Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1334OT Devils

Season APEX 86.9Event APEX 28.57Rank 29Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11428Horns of Steel

Season APEX 83.6Event APEX 56.29Rank 38Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 695 ±8.8

1325Inverse Paradox

A+

Season APEX 313.6Event APEX 131.14Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4907Thunderstamps

Season APEX 210.5Event APEX -Rank 14Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4069Lo-Ellen Robotics

Season APEX 170.9Event APEX 111.14Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1360, 1334, 11428

/ 100 compat

Projected

125.8 pts

~0.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1360, 1334, 11428

Auto

29.1 23%

Teleop

66.7 53%

Endgame

29.9 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1325, 4907, 4069

/ 100 compat

Projected

283.2 pts

~2.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1325, 4907, 4069

Auto

56.8 20%

Teleop

160.7 57%

Endgame

65.6 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.82 · Blue 2.55

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score125.8pts

Blue projected score283.2pts

Red win probability12%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 26%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -157.4
Score range: 82–327
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 686 vs event baseline 245.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

377.4Season APEX695

16.9Auto44.6

46.3Teleop140.3

21.7Endgame57.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	55
teleop	96	273
endgame	94	126
foul	5	0
total	232	454

Result

Final score

232 – 454

Prediction correct · off by 138.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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