FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Science Division

Qualification · Qualification 89

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

259.98 – 354.86

23%77%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

483 – 255

Prediction missed · off by 161.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 529.2 ±9.8

4920Belle River Boltheads

Season APEX 162.7Event APEX 31.83Rank 8Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7520Team MineKee

Season APEX 240.1Event APEX 174.5Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2386Trojans

Season APEX 126.4Event APEX 53.65Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 497.8 ±9.4

4308ABSOLUTE ROBOTICS

Season APEX 75.7Event APEX 51.14Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7476Spongebotics

Season APEX 108.5Event APEX 68.27Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1325Inverse Paradox

A+

Season APEX 313.6Event APEX 235.45Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4920, 7520, 2386

/ 100 compat

Projected

260 pts

~1.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4920, 7520, 2386

Auto

69.5 28%

Teleop

128.6 52%

Endgame

50.2 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 4308, 7476, 1325

/ 100 compat

Projected

354.9 pts

~2.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4308, 7476, 1325

Auto

74.4 21%

Teleop

198.9 56%

Endgame

80.6 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.2 · Blue 2.26

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score260pts

Blue projected score354.9pts

Red win probability23%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 20%, blue 18%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -94.9
Score range: 211–404
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 738 vs event baseline 269.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

529.2Season APEX497.8

69.5Auto74.4

128.6Teleop198.9

50.2Endgame80.6

90Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	65	55
teleop	335	107
endgame	83	93
foul	0	0
total	483	255

Result

Final score

483 – 255

Prediction missed · off by 161.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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