FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Science Division

Qualification · Qualification 88

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

160.8 – 143.08

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

241 – 245

Prediction missed · off by 91.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 318.5 ±10.4

9262Humberside Huskies

Season APEX 98.3Event APEX 19.63Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5409Chargers

Season APEX 170.5Event APEX 97.47Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7757Atomic Dishwashers

Season APEX 49.7Event APEX 43.7Rank 44Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 361.4 ±10.5

11428Horns of Steel

Season APEX 83.6Event APEX 23.02Rank 38Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4907Thunderstamps

Season APEX 210.5Event APEX 110.08Rank 14Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6875Amazon Warriors Robotics

Season APEX 67.3Event APEX 9.98Rank 45Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9262, 5409, 7757

/ 100 compat

Projected

160.8 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9262, 5409, 7757

Auto

50.4 32%

Teleop

59.8 38%

Endgame

48.8 31%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 11428, 4907, 6875

/ 100 compat

Projected

143.1 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 11428, 4907, 6875

Auto

33.1 25%

Teleop

65.8 50%

Endgame

33.0 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.68 · Blue 1.3

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score160.8pts

Blue projected score143.1pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 15%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 17.7
Score range: 94–210
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 486 vs event baseline 269.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

318.5Season APEX361.4

50.4Auto33.1

59.8Teleop65.8

48.8Endgame33

23Consistency61

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	59	57
teleop	117	99
endgame	60	89
foul	5	0
total	241	245

Result

Final score

241 – 245

Prediction missed · off by 91.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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