FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Science Division

Qualification · Qualification 87

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

338.3 – 361.86

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

572 – 302

Prediction missed · off by 146.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 590.1 ±9.8

2056OP Robotics

Season APEX 404.1Event APEX 286.24Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9263ALD Lions

Season APEX 100.7Event APEX 36.81Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9575Silver Robotics

Season APEX 85.3Event APEX 15.25Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 437.9 ±9.8

9569Milliken Mills Silver Knights

Season APEX 129.8Event APEX 136.19Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11227Goose Goose Duck

Season APEX 106.2Event APEX 103.28Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10015Bubbles

Season APEX 201.9Event APEX 122.39Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2056, 9263, 9575

/ 100 compat

Projected

338.3 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2056, 9263, 9575

Auto

82.0 24%

Teleop

191.9 56%

Endgame

65.8 19%

Strengths

· 2056 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9569, 11227, 10015

/ 100 compat

Projected

361.9 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9569, 11227, 10015

Auto

60.9 17%

Teleop

209.2 58%

Endgame

90.4 25%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.61 · Blue 1.92

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score338.3pts

Blue projected score361.9pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 23%, blue 17%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -23.6
Score range: 290–410
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 874 vs event baseline 267.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

590.1Season APEX437.9

82Auto60.9

191.9Teleop209.2

65.8Endgame90.4

10Consistency85

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	142	18
teleop	332	211
endgame	98	68
foul	0	5
total	572	302

Result

Final score

572 – 302

Prediction missed · off by 146.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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