FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Science Division

Qualification · Qualification 86

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

455.44 – 185.05

97%3%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

546 – 244

Prediction correct · off by 74.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 691.4 ±9.3

2200BCR Blackout

Season APEX 262Event APEX 157.59Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9562Royal Robotics

Season APEX 126.1Event APEX 72.44Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4678CyberCavs

A+

Season APEX 303.3Event APEX 225.41Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 290.7 ±10.4

9580Grizzly Gears

Season APEX 51.8Event APEX -3.08Rank 46Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

865WARP7

Season APEX 162.1Event APEX 148.11Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5672First Nations-STEM

Season APEX 76.8Event APEX 40.02Rank 33Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2200, 9562, 4678

/ 100 compat

Projected

455.4 pts

~2.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2200, 9562, 4678

Auto

91.1 21%

Teleop

247.9 56%

Endgame

103.9 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9580, 865, 5672

/ 100 compat

Projected

185.1 pts

~0.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9580, 865, 5672

Auto

40.2 22%

Teleop

115.5 63%

Endgame

26.8 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.62 · Blue 0.57

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score455.4pts

Blue projected score185.1pts

Red win probability97%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 23%, blue 11%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 270.4
Score range: 137–503
Upset likelihood: 3%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 790 vs event baseline 266.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

691.4Season APEX290.7

91.1Auto40.2

247.9Teleop115.5

103.9Endgame26.8

24Consistency51

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	124	59
teleop	315	117
endgame	92	63
foul	15	5
total	546	244

Result

Final score

546 – 244

Prediction correct · off by 74.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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