FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Science Division

Qualification · Qualification 85

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

74.82 – 250.68

10%90%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

74 – 423

Prediction correct · off by 86.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 224.3 ±10.4

919PANTHERA TIGRIS

Season APEX 58.5Event APEX -4.6Rank 47Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5870League of Logic

Season APEX 56.8Event APEX 36.85Rank 43Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2706Merge Robotics

Season APEX 109Event APEX 42.57Rank 50Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 453.4 ±9.8

1334OT Devils

Season APEX 86.9Event APEX 29.76Rank 29Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9659Vanier Vikings

Season APEX 82Event APEX 10.21Rank 36Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4476W.A.F.F.L.E.S.

Season APEX 284.5Event APEX 210.71Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 919, 5870, 2706

/ 100 compat

Projected

74.8 pts

~0.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 919, 5870, 2706

Auto

-1.8 0%

Teleop

49.1 76%

Endgame

17.4 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1334, 9659, 4476

/ 100 compat

Projected

250.7 pts

~2.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1334, 9659, 4476

Auto

43.0 17%

Teleop

133.0 53%

Endgame

74.6 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.59 · Blue 2.41

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score74.8pts

Blue projected score250.7pts

Red win probability10%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 29%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 19%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -175.9
Score range: 27–299
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 497 vs event baseline 266.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

224.3Season APEX453.4

-1.8Auto43

49.1Teleop133

17.4Endgame74.6

73Consistency65

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	52
teleop	15	273
endgame	36	98
foul	0	0
total	74	423

Result

Final score

74 – 423

Prediction correct · off by 86.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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